Market Timing Graph (updated
each weekend)
Expanded View
(as of 9/01/2006)
The Market Timing indicator advanced nicely to close the week
in the Green Zone. While we may see a pullback to its raising
7 week average the markets seem primed for further advance. As
always, shop carefully. I still suspect some market uneasiness
as we approach the Sept 20th FED meeting in 3 weeks. Just observing
the market timing graph cycles, that date could potentially mark
the top of this current up cycle. One thing in particular that
I'll be watching for in this next advance will be if the market
timing indicator can break above the previous cycle highs of July'05
and Feb'06. From a longer term market perspective, I'm still concerned
with the general downward trend in the peaks of these timing analysis
cycles.
(as of 8/25/2006)
The Market Timing indicator pulled back to the edge of the
Red Zone to end the week just above the threshold point. This
kind of pullback seemed orderly and with the raising 7-week average
looks supportive and encouraging. With next week being the end
of summer vacation/pre-holiday week, we will most likely see similar
consolidation on light market action. Things seem to be setting
up nicely for an advance leading into the fall which might carry
until the next FED meeting on Sept 20.
(as of 8/18/2006)
The Market Timing indicator finally made it up and out of
the Red Zone which signals a healthier market. We should anticipate
some consolidation and perhaps a pullback to test this recent
advance. Now is a great time to line up those items on your shopping
lists and monitor their charts for attractive entry levels. Don't
get too carried away in this initial advance phase. The markets
still love a good 'fake & shake' and we need to see if the
advance this week was real or if it was 'created' by the strong
hands to wash out large put option positions at options expiration.
Market action early next week will be very telling... Keep stops
fairly tight as we are still in the cautionary Yellow Zone.
(as of 8/11/2006)
Well, as expected the Market Timing indicator declined back
to its 7-week average. Each new week seems to offer a new set
of challenges for the markets. Stay alert and be cautious as long
as we remain stuck in this Red zone.
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